据OE网站1月29日报道，美国石油库存继续趋近五年平均水平，这一迹象表明，尽管新冠病毒自2020年底以来卷土重来，但石油市场仍在继续实现再平衡。

不包括战略石油储备的原油及成品油总库存上周减少了1200万桶，自2020年年中以来减少了1.3亿桶。

根据美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据显示，在过去30周中，库存有24周下降。

其结果是，目前的石油库存较2015-2019年疫情前五年平均水平高出6%，低于6月底14%的过剩。

原油盈余从19％缩减至9％，而产品盈余从12％缩减至5％。如今，汽油库存几乎与疫情前的五年平均水平完全一致，尽管馏出油仍然有10％的盈余，但比去年6月的近30％有所下降。

至关重要的是，供应国内市场的馏分油(反映消费状况的指标)数量高于疫情前五年的平均水平，这使柴油和取暖油库存面临下行压力。

美国炼油厂继续限制原油加工，比疫情前的平均水平低8％，而产品消耗量与2015-2019年的平均水平相比仅下降4％。

受限制的加工量确保了产品库存继续下降，即使自去年第四季度开始以来病毒感染的数量再次上升。

但随着馏分油盈余减少，炼油商不再需要以牺牲柴油为代价，使汽油产量最大化，中、轻馏分油的产量比已恢复正常。

汽油库存已恢复正常。馏分油库存将在第一季度末恢复正常。

原油库存仍处于高位，但如果OPEC+和美国页岩生产商继续限制产量，那么过剩将在第二季度末或第三季度初消除。

郝芬 译自 OE

原文如下：

Oil Market On Track to Rebalance Around Mid-2021

U.S. petroleum inventories have continued to converge down towards the five-year average, a sign that oil market rebalancing remains on track, despite the resurgence of the coronavirus since the end of 2020.

Total stocks of crude oil and products, excluding the strategic petroleum reserve, fell by 12 million barrels last week and are down by 130 million barrels since the middle of 2020.

Stocks have fallen in 24 out of the last 30 weeks, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

As a result, petroleum inventories are now 6% above the pre-pandemic five-year average for 2015-2019, down from a surplus of 14% at the end of June.

The surplus in crude has shrunk to 9% from 19%, while the surplus in products has narrowed to 5% from 12%.

Gasoline stocks are now almost exactly in line with the pre-epidemic five-year average, and while distillates are still in a surplus of 10%, that has fallen from almost 30% last June.

Crucially, the volume of distillate supplied to the domestic market, a proxy for consumption, is running above the pre-pandemic five-year average, which is keeping downward pressure on stocks of diesel and heating oil.

U.S. refineries continue to restrict crude processing, with rates 8% below the pre-pandemic average compared to a drop in product consumption of just 4% versus the 2015-2019 average.

Restricted processing volumes have ensured product stocks continue to fall, even as the number of virus infections has risen again since the start of the fourth quarter.

But with a smaller surplus in distillates, refiners are no longer having to maximize gasoline output at the expense of diesel, and the yield ratio between middle and light distillates has returned to normal.

Gasoline inventories have normalized. Distillate inventories should return to normal by the end of the first quarter.

Crude stocks remain elevated but the surplus should be eliminated by the end of the second quarter or early in the third, provided OPEC+ and U.S. shale producers continue to restrict their production.