I would argue that there are going to be plenty of opportunities. And part of the reason there are going to be plenty of opportunities, the tech doesn’t make any difference for any of that. New things coming along don’t take away the opportunities.

我认为市场上还是有很多机会，因为技术变革并不会带来任何改变，新事物的出现并不会剥夺投资机会。

What gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things. Well, the 58 years we’ve been running Berkshire, I would say there’s been a great increase in the number of people doing dumb things. The reason they do it to some extent is because they can get money from other people so much easier than when we started.

人们干了傻事就会创造投资机会。在我们经营伯克希尔的58年里，干傻事的人越来越多了。他们这么做的原因是，在某种程度上，他们能比我们创业时更容易从别人那里拿到钱。

So, you could start 10 or 15 dumb insurance companies in the last ten years, and you could become rich if you were adroit at it, whether the business succeeded or not, and the underwriters got paid, and the lawyers got paid. And if that’s done on a large scale — which it couldn’t be done 58 years ago.

所以，在过去10年里，你可以创办10家或者15家愚蠢的保险公司，只要你精于此道，无论业务成功与否，承保人都能拿到钱，律师也能拿到钱，你就会成为富翁。这在58年前是做不到的。

You couldn’t get the money to do some of the dumb things that we wanted to do, fortunately. And so, I think that investing has disappeared so much from this huge capitalistic market that anybody can play in, but that the big money is in selling other people ideas.

幸运的是，你没有钱去做一些我们想做的蠢事。因此，我认为投资已经从这个任何人都可以参与的巨大资本主义市场中消失了，而赚大钱的是向别人兜售创意。

And I think if you’re running small amounts of money,  the opportunities will be greater. But then Charlie and I always differed on this subject. He likes to tell me how gloomy the world is, and I like to tell him, “We’ll find something.” And so far, we’ve both be kind of right.

我认为，如果你投入的是小额资金，机会就会更多。但在这个问题上，查理和我总是意见不一。他喜欢告诉我这个世界有多灰暗，而我喜欢告诉他 "我们会找到机会的"。到目前为止，我们都是对的。

以上内容节选自2022年巴菲特答股东问

由数字人巴菲特播报

本视频由七华软件用人工智能技术生成