If you’d look at the 1930s, nobody could have predicted how much the automobile and airplane would transform the world. There were 2000 car companies, but now only 3 left in the US and they are hanging on barely. It was tremendous for society, but horrible for investors. Investors would have had to not only identify the right companies, but also identify the right time. The net wealth creation in airlines since Orville Wright has been next to zero. Or look at TV manufacturers. There are hundreds of millions of TV’s, RCA & GE used to produce them, but now there are no American manufacturers left.

如果你回头看看20世纪30年代，没人能够预测汽车行业和航空业能改变全世界。当时有2000家汽车公司，但是在美国现在只剩下3家了，并且它们都在垂死挣扎。对于社会来说这是巨大变化，对于投资者而言这简直是噩耗。投资者不仅需要去辨识对的公司，还要抓住对的时间。自莱特兄弟之后诞生的航空业，净财富的增长几乎为0。或者看看TV行业，曾经有数不清的电视台，RCA & GE曾经是它们的制造者，但是现在没有几个美国制造商剩下了。

If you want a great business, take Coca-Cola. The product is unchanged, they sell 1.5 billion 8 ounce servings per day 122 years later. They have a moat; if you have a castle, someone’s going to come after you.

如果你想投资一个伟大的行业，那就选可口可乐吧。可口可乐的产品从未改变过，122年后的现在它们每天卖出15亿8盎司的量。可口可乐还有护城河；如果你自己有一座城堡，你身后肯定有人是想冲进城堡的。

Gillette accounts for 70% of razor sales at 80% gross margins and it is the same over time. Men don’t change much. Shaving might be the only creative thing they do.

吉列占了剃须刀市场70%的份额，毛利润率是80%，并且这个数字不会改变。男人们每天的生活也是一尘不变的，剃胡子可能是他们做过的最有创造力的事情。

Snickers has been the #1 candy bar for the past 40 years. If you gave me $1 billion to knock off Snickers, I can’t do it. That’s the test of a good business. You don’t knock off Coke or Gillette. Richard Branson is a marketing genius. He came in with Virgin Cola, we’re not sure what the name means, perhaps it turns you back into one, but he couldn’t knock off Coke. We look for wide moats around great economic castles. Growth is good too, but we prefer strong economics. 

士力架居于糖果棒第一的位置已经40年了。如果你现在给我10亿美元去击败士力架，我是做不到的。这是对一家好企业的考验。你不可能打败可口可乐和吉列剃须刀。Richard Branson是一位市场销售天才，他当时创造了处女可乐，我们不知道这个名字意味着什么，可能喝了以后能让人变成处子之身吧，但即便这样他也没能打败掉可口可乐。我们寻找的是拥有很宽的护城河的伟大企业。增长当然很重要，但是我们还是更喜欢本身就很强大的企业。