我们努力寻找那些在一般情况下是可预测的企业。这意味着我们正在寻找的企业，一般来说不会受到太多变化的影响。我们认为，变化对投资过程的威胁大于机遇。这与大多数人现在看待股票的方式截然相反。

We strive to identify businesses that are generally predictable. This means we seek companies that, as a rule, are not significantly impacted by change. We believe change poses more of a threat than an opportunity to the investment process. This stands in stark contrast to how most people view stocks today.

除了少数例外，我们不感兴趣对于“将改变作为一种赚大钱的方式”。我们正在寻找缺乏改变的公司，这些公司在缺乏变化的行业里已经赚了很多钱，并且他们在未来会赚得更多。

With few exceptions, we have no interest in “using change as a way to make big money”. We seek companies that lack change—companies that have already earned substantial profits in industries resistant to change and will earn even more in the future.

所以我们把变化看作是一种威胁。每当我们看一个企业，如果我们看到很多变化，十有八九，我们会把它过滤掉。当我们看到一些我们认为很有可能在10年或20年后看起来和现在一样的东西时，我们对预测它更有信心。

Therefore, we view change as a threat. Whenever we evaluate a business, if we observe significant change, we will most likely filter it out. When we encounter something we believe is highly likely to look the same in 10 or 20 years as it does today, we feel more confident in predicting its future.

巴菲特股东大会观点摘录

由数字人巴菲特播报 

本视频由七华软件用人工智能技术生成