You don’t need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns. But if you aren’t, you must recognize your limitations and follow a course certain to work reasonably well. Keep things simple and don’t swing for the fences. When promised quick profits, respond with a quick “no.” 

你不需要成为专家就能获得令人满意的投资回报。但你必须认识到你的局限性，并遵循行之有效的方法。保持事情简单，不要赌。当有人拉你赚快钱的时候，立马回绝。

Focus on the future productivity of the asset you are considering. If you don’t feel comfortable making a rough estimate of the asset’s future earnings, just forget it and move on. No one has the ability to evaluate every investment possibility. But omniscience isn’t necessary; you only need to understand the actions you undertake. 

买资产的话，要关注未来产出效益。如果你对粗略估算未来收益感到一丝不踏实，那就放弃，别干。没人能评估每一种投资的可行性。只需要懂你在做的事情，不需要啥都懂。

If you instead focus on the prospective price change of a contemplated purchase, you are speculating. There is nothing improper about that. I know, however, that I am unable to speculate successfully, and I am skeptical of those who claim sustained success at doing so. Half of all coin-flippers will win their first toss; none of those winners has an expectation of profit if he continues to play the game.

如果你转而关注目标的预期价格变化，你就是在投机。这无可厚非。但我知道我没有投机的本事，我也不相信有人能持续成功投机。有一半抛硬币赌博的人第一轮会赢；他们一直赌下去的话，没人能赢钱。

I thought only of what the properties would produce and cared not at all about their daily valuations. Games are won by players who focus on the playing field – not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard. If you can enjoy Saturdays and Sundays without looking at stock prices, give it a try on weekdays. 

我只考虑这些资产会产出什么，根本不关心它们每天的价格。赛场获胜的一定是专注于比赛的运动员，而不是那些眼睛盯着记分牌的人。如果你可以享受周末不看股价的日子，试试工作日也别看。

Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time. Indeed, it is dangerous because it may blur your vision of the facts that are truly important. 

判断宏观经济，或听别人对宏观经济看法、市场预测啥的，纯属浪费时间。实际上这很危险，因为这些内容可能会模糊你的视野，进而忽视了真正重要的事。